Open Seat Elections 2022: MA House of Representatives
In our previous post, we highlighted the five elections for fall 2022 in the Massachusetts state senate in which an incumbent is not running for their current position. These “open seat” elections often present the most unpredictable results, especially when considering that certain legislative districts have been redrawn for the 2022 election. While each of the five senate elections could be impacted by these changes, this will have a much larger effect for the open seat elections in the House. Not only do senators represent a larger voting base than representatives, but there are also a whopping 20 open seats in the House, a total of 13% of all those in the legislature for 2022. Taking all this into account, these elections will be very important in determining the future of the legislature, which is why we have provided a detailed analysis of some of the most heated races this fall:
4th Essex District:
The redistricting changes made in 2022 by the legislature altered many district lines, including that of the 4th Essex district. Rep. Jamie Belsito (D), had recently been elected to represent the district in a special election during the fall of 2021 after former Rep. Brad Hill’s (R) appointment to the Massachusetts Gaming Commission. However, as a result of shifting districts, Belsito has decided to no longer run for this seat, leaving it open to four Democratic candidates in the region. One of the most notable of these candidates is William Lantigua, former state representative and mayor of Lawrence. Lantigua, who previously beat current Representative Marcos Devers (D) for his seat in the legislature, has proven his capability to win elections. With this said though, he also has a somewhat checkered past in the region, as he held both the state representative and mayoral positions at the same time for a period, which created controversy. Whether due to overextending himself at a time of crisis for Lawrence or other claims of city mismanagement causing him to lose the mayoral seat, Lantigua still holds large name recognition in the district and boasts an impressive record as both an independent and democrat.
Two current city councilors in the district look to challenge Lantigua though, one of which being Councilor Estela Reyes, also from the City of Lawrence. Reyes, who has been serving Lawrence since 2012, has close ties to the city and recently was endorsed by current mayor of Lawrence, Brian DePeña, who was voted in the position recently in the fall of 2021. Therefore, it is very possible Reyes could likewise pull a majority of votes in Lawrence, giving her a strong chance at receiving the nomination. However, the 4th Essex district does not represent all of Lawrence, and actually contains a large number of voters from other cities, like Methuen, MA. James McCarty, a city councilor from Methuen, has served in his position since 2018, and in 2020 became the youngest chair of the city council in Methuen’s history. While only 29 years old, the changes in 4th Essex district may prove favorable for him, especially if Lantigua and Reyes end up taking votes from each other's base.
Lastly among the candidates is Francisco (Frank) Surillo, the current vice chairman of the Methuen Housing Authority. Despite not serving as a direct city or state representative, Surillo has a wide range of experience in both Methuen and Lawrence. Having served on a number of local committees in each city, Surillo is pressing that if elected he will be the best independent candidate for the district and will prioritize getting the area its fair share of tax dollars from the state.
The 4th Essex district (along with the 16th Essex, 17th Essex and others) are now majority Hispanic voting districts aimed at helping truly represent Massachusetts’ populations in the legislature. Although it is unclear which of these four Democratic candidates will come out on top, three of out of the four of them are Hispanic. As a result, it is likely that this district, historically representing large populations of non-white communities, will finally have a non-white representative for the first time in history.
8th Hampden District:
While many open seat elections in 2022 for the House of Representatives are due to redistricting or the fact that an incumbent decided to run for a different office, there are a couple open seats because of an incumbent’s decision to retire. This is the case for Rep. Linda Dean Campbell, who represents the 15th Essex district, and also long time legislator, Rep. Joseph Wagner, who has represented the 8th Hampden district since 1993. Wagner has been a hallmark member in the Massachusetts legislature, and next to three other representatives, Rep. Antonio Cabral, Rep. William Galvin, and current Speaker of the House, Rep. Ronald Mariano, is its longest serving current member. His departure leaves a big role to fill in the legislature, but three candidates, two democrats and one independent, will attempt to do so if elected in the fall.
Originally there were three democrats running for the 8th Hampden open seat, two of which were Chicopee city councilors. Councilor Shane Brooks dropped out of the election this spring, but his colleague, Joel McAuliffe remains in the race for the position. McAuliffe believes that his experience working at all levels of Massachusetts government makes him the best suited candidate for the district, and hopes the voters will strongly consider that when voting. He is not the only candidate from Chicopee remaining in the election though, as veteran, teacher, and former city councilor at large candidate, Shirley Arriaga is also seeking the nomination. Both democrats hold close ties to the community in their respective roles, and as Wagner hails from Chicopee as well, these votes could prove important in deciding the outcome of the election.
Both democrats will have to share the Chicopee base with one other candidate however, independent, Sean Goonan. Goonan, a local of Chicopee who works as both a carpenter and a farmer, similar to Arriaga previously ran for Chicopee city councilor at large and lost. However, for this election he hopes that as the only non-partisan candidate he will identify with more voters in the district through his small business and workforce development centric platform.
Wagner’s departure as second majority party leader in the House will be a big shift for the Democrats in the legislature, but the winner of this election could similarly hold his position for a long time. In its history as a legislative district since 1858, the eighth Hampden district has only had nine representatives total, seven of which served for 15 years or more. Therefore, if this trend continues, one of these candidates could end up holding power for decades, not just one election.
The overwhelming majority of candidates running in the House open seat elections for 2022 identify as a member of the Democratic Party.
19th Worcester District:
One of the new districts created in 2022 from the redistricting efforts of the legislature was that of the 19th Worcester district. As the 15th, 16th, and 17th Worcester districts are now majority minority voters (similar to that of the Essex districts mentioned above), the new 19th Worcester district represents the areas of Northborough, Southborough, and Westborough. As it is a new district, this election, unlike others, is much more unpredictable. With this said, there are only two candidates for voters to choose from in the election, one Democrat and one Republican.
The sole democratic candidate is that of Kate Donaghue, a Westborough native who has worked in a variety of capacities for the region. Holding two masters degrees in computer science and medical technology, she has worked on numerous committees in Westborough with a focus on conservation and substance abuse. The latter issue area is of particular importance to Donaghue, as she lost her son to an overdose in 2018, and since has been a leading advocate for the issue for both the Attorney General’s office and UMass Memorial Medical Center. Seeing as the three towns have generally voted democrat in past federal elections, there is a significant possibility that Donaghue is elected.
However, the new 19th Worcester district contains large parts of three other former and current representatives’ districts, two of which are Democrat and one Republican. Interestingly, former Rep. Hannah Kane, the Republican, is who represented Westborough, where Donaghue hails from. Although this may be insignificant considering Westborough was only part of Kane’s district, it may prove an advantage for Donaghue’s Republican opponent, Jonathan Hostage. Hostage, a Southborough business owner and vice president of marketing for another company, is running on a heavily conservative platform, with specific focus on fighting inflation and preventing critical race theory from being taught in schools. Hostage has been particularly critical of the current legislature, telling the Community Advocate that the legislators have a “growing disdain for transparency” as well as maintain a “troubling history of prioritizing themselves ahead of the public.” His critiques may be heard by some from that area of the state that may feel detached from the legislature in Boston, but if he is to win he will assuredly need to capture some of Kane’s voting base.
With two clear cut party options in this new district, there is no specific advantage one candidate has over another, and as federal elections will be happening simultaneously this could also have an impact on the vote.
As evidenced by the graph above, most candidates running in the House open seat elections bring either a local government or outside sector experience to the race.
Other Notable Races:
While we cannot highlight every race in this one blog post, this does not mean there are not other very important open seat elections happening around the state. For example, in the eighth Essex district (formerly Rep. Ehrlich’s seat) there are six different democrats running for the position, all with varying experiences. In the 9th Norfolk district (formerly Rep. Dooley’s seat) there is another heated contest where democrats Steve Teehan and Kevin Kalkut will both look to flip the district, but will face significant opposition from Republican Marcus Vaughn in a district where Republicans have historically invested a lot of resources in.
These and many other races will prove very important for the ongoing makeup of the legislature, but with that said there are a lot of them taking place. For all twenty open seats in the House and every other election occurring in the legislature, we are here to help! Instatrac has candidate profiles available for every legislative race in Massachusetts that provide all the details a voter could need to help make their decision - and enable candidates to better understand their opponents. For more information or to see a demo of our services, please reach out to info@instatrac.com.
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